Season's End: IMD Monsoon Forecast and the Rainfall Deficit

Source: Original editorial ↗ The Hindu

The Lift Line

“It should improve its sub-regional forecast systems and not shy from being the bearer of ill-news, if needed.”

Why This Editorial Matters for Your Exam

The Hindu’s unsigned editorial of 2 October 2026 audits the IMD’s 2026 monsoon forecasts. The season’s numbers are in our 1 October deep dive; this piece adds the question of forecast quality and communication, useful in GS1 (monsoon) and GS3 (agriculture, disaster management).

GS Paper 1: Important geophysical phenomena; the Indian monsoon. GS Paper 3: Agriculture; disaster management (drought).

Background and Context

IMD’s rainfall categories (all-India, share of long period average).

Category	Range
Deficient	Below 90%
Below normal	90 to 95%
Normal	96 to 104%
Above normal	105 to 110%
Excess	Above 110%

Forecast against outcome, 2026 (as the editorial gives them).

Period or region	Forecast	Outcome
Season, all-India	Below normal	759 mm, 87% of the normal 869 mm (deficient)
June	92%	65%
July	Below 94%	One percentage point more, the editorial says
August	Below 94%	84%
September	Below 91%	92.4%
North-east India	Normal	26% short, driest since 1901
South peninsula		23% short

The Analysis

1. Too cautious. With global agreement on a strong El Nino and its own models pointing to a deficiency, IMD still chose “below normal”. It can claim a “technical victory” because the result fell within the error window.

2. Magnitude at the local level. The monthly and regional numbers show IMD’s difficulty in getting the size of shortfalls right, most glaringly in the north-east.

3. A changing climate. Western disturbances are bringing more rain in monsoon months, while the south seems more vulnerable to El Nino-driven swings.

4. Consequences on the ground. Kharif sowing trailed last year’s by 16% in the second week of July but had nearly caught up by early September. Karnataka has declared drought in over 100 taluks and Maharashtra in 265 of 358. The national deficit, at about 12%, is below the 20% threshold the editorial cites for an agricultural drought.

5. Bad news ahead. IMD expects El Nino to strengthen and bring below-normal rain to most of the country in October to December.

Data and Institutions Vault

Prelims-grade facts:

The 2026 season:

• All-India rainfall 759 mm, 87% of the normal (about 869 mm); June 65%.
• North-east India: 26% short, driest since 1901; south peninsula 23% short.

Institutions:

• IMD: set up in 1875; under the Ministry of Earth Sciences; HQ New Delhi.
• The long period average is based on 1971 to 2020 rainfall.
• El Nino: warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, usually weakening the Indian monsoon.

⚠️ Watch the trap: A meteorological drought is a rainfall shortfall; an agricultural drought is a shortfall in soil moisture and crops. States declare drought using the Centre’s Manual for Drought Management, which uses several indicators, not rainfall alone.

The Debate

For the editorial’s view. Forecasts guide sowing, water release and food management; a softened forecast delays preparation.

The complications. The all-India number was within the error band; El Nino-year magnitude is hard to predict; over-warning has costs too.

The balanced verdict. Communicate probabilities honestly and invest in regional, sub-seasonal skill, where the stakes for farmers are highest.

How to Think About This

Totals hide distribution. In any monsoon question, move from the all-India figure to months (timing) and regions (spatial spread). Agriculture lives in those details.

Diagram-in-Words

Takeaway Box

• 2026 monsoon: 87% of normal (759 mm vs 869 mm); forecast was “below normal”.
• Misses: June 65% vs 92% forecast; north-east driest since 1901.
• Drought: Karnataka 100+ taluks; Maharashtra 265 of 358.
• Ask: sub-regional forecasting, honest warnings.

Sources: The Hindu, India Meteorological Department

Source: Season's End: IMD Monsoon Forecast and the Rainfall Deficit — Ujiyari.com | Free UPSC & State PCS Editorial Analysis

Key Arguments at a Glance

The Hindu argues that the India Meteorological Department was too conservative in 2026: it forecast a below-normal monsoon when its own models pointed to a deficiency, and its monthly and regional forecasts missed the magnitude of the shortfall, so it should improve sub-regional forecasting and not shy from delivering bad news.

✓ Supporting

• Both pre-season forecasts (April and May) pointed to a dry monsoon amid a strong El Nino, but IMD chose “below normal” (90 to 95% of average) though its models suggested “deficient” (below 90%); the season ended at 759 mm, 87% of the normal 869 mm.
• Monthly calls missed: June got 65% of normal against a 92% forecast; August came in at 84% and September at 92.4%; the north-east, forecast normal, recorded its driest season since 1901 (26% short), and the south peninsula ran 23% short.
• Climate change complicates forecasting: Western disturbances have been bringing more rain to India in the monsoon months, while southern India appears more exposed to El Nino-driven volatility.
• Consequences are real: Karnataka has declared drought in over 100 taluks and Maharashtra in 265 of 358; IMD expects below-normal rain over most of the country in October to December, threatening soil moisture and reservoir recharge.

⚠ Counter

Ujiyari’s synthesis: the all-India total fell within the stated forecast error, seasonal forecasting of rainfall magnitude in El Nino years is hard everywhere, and an agency that over-warns can trigger panic, hoarding and price spikes; caution in public communication has a rationale.

→ Way Forward

The editorial asks IMD to improve sub-regional forecasting systems and to be willing to warn of a deficiency when its models indicate one. Ujiyari adds: probabilistic, district-level forecasts linked to agro-advisories, contingency crop plans and drought declarations.