🗞️ Why in News The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 30 September 2026, the last day of the season, that the south-west monsoon brought 759.4 mm of rain against a normal of 868.6 mm: 87 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), or 12.6 per cent below normal. It is the lowest season since 2015, and east and north-east India had its driest monsoon since records began in 1901. IMD also expects October rain to be below 85 per cent of normal.
The Season in Numbers
| Measure | 2026 |
|---|---|
| All-India rainfall, June to September | 759.4 mm against an LPA of 868.6 mm (87% of LPA) |
| Rank | Lowest since 2015 (758.2 mm that year, The Hindu reports; also a strong El Niño year); The Indian Express describes it as the fourth driest this century and the 13th driest since 1901 |
| Monthly | June about 65% of normal; July about 101%; August about 84%; September about 92% |
| East and north-east India | About 1,017 mm, 25.6% below normal: the driest since 1901 |
| South peninsula | 542 mm, 24.3% below normal: the fourth lowest since 1901 |
| North-west India | 5.9% below normal |
| Central India | 2.6% below normal |
| Meteorological subdivisions | Of 36: 17 deficient (covering about 42% of the land area), 18 normal, 1 excess |
| Districts | Of 741 assessed, 282 deficient and 34 large deficient (The Hindu); deficient in every month: Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya |
| October outlook | All-India rain likely below 85% of its LPA of about 75.4 mm |
Sources: IMD briefing as reported by The Hindu and The Indian Express, 30 September 2026.
The 12 per cent deficit was already the working figure when the Centre set its 2026-27 foodgrain target, covered in our 30 September deep dive, which also explains how El Niño reaches the Rabi crop. Today’s news is the official close of the season and its regional pattern.
How IMD Classifies a Season
| All-India seasonal rain (% of LPA) | Category |
|---|---|
| Below 90 | Deficient |
| 90 to 95 | Below normal |
| 96 to 104 | Normal |
| 105 to 110 | Above normal |
| Above 110 | Excess |
The LPA is the average rainfall of 1971 to 2020, about 87 cm for the June-September season. At 87 per cent, 2026 is a deficient season. For a district or subdivision, rainfall within 19 per cent above or below normal is “normal”, 20 to 59 per cent below is “deficient” and 60 to 99 per cent below is “large deficient”.
Why the Season Was Dry, and Why It Was Not Drier
El Niño. Warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific weakens the Walker circulation and the monsoon. For context, IMD had forecast a subdued season from April: 92 per cent of LPA (error ±5) on 13 April, lowered to 90 per cent (±4) on 29 May. The final figure sits within those ranges, so the seasonal forecast held, even though the monthly forecasts missed: June came in far drier than forecast.
Low-pressure systems saved central India. IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country was under the influence of low-pressure systems on 77 days, against a normal of 57. Systems forming over the Bay of Bengal and moving inland kept central India close to normal, with July ending slightly above normal.
The MJO did not help the south. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving band of clouds that returns every 30 to 60 days, stayed unfavourable over southern India, which usually depends more on it. All southern States ended in deficit.
A longer trend in the east. Mohapatra pointed to a “marked trend” of diminishing rainfall over east and north-east India in recent years, The Hindu reported. This year’s record low in Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh fits that trend.
What comes next. The El Niño is expected to peak in November and end by March 2027, The Indian Express reported. The south-west monsoon is withdrawing and should leave the country in the first weeks of October, making way for the north-east monsoon (October to December), which matters most for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala.
What a Deficient Monsoon Touches
| Sector | Channel |
|---|---|
| Kharif crops | Sown area of paddy fell; pulses and oilseeds in dry spells in Marathwada, Vidarbha and north Karnataka |
| Rabi crops | Lower reservoir levels and residual soil moisture at sowing |
| Power | Lower hydropower; higher coal demand |
| Prices | Pressure on pulses, vegetables and edible oils; buffer stocks of wheat and rice are comfortable |
| Drought relief | Declared by States under the Manual for Drought Management; central assistance from the NDRF after an inter-ministerial central team visits |
Analysis
1. An all-India number hides two Indias. North-west and central India were close to normal; the east, north-east and south were 24 to 26 per cent short. Policy responses (contingency crop plans, drought declarations, power planning) must follow the regional map, not the national average.
2. The north-east record matters beyond farming. The Brahmaputra valley’s wetlands, tea gardens and hydropower all depend on monsoon flows. A record-dry year there, after years of decline, needs study as a possible climate signal.
3. Forecasting is improving at the season scale. Getting the season right while missing months points to where investment is needed: extended-range (two to four weeks) and block-level forecasts that farmers can act on.
4. Resilience is the lesson. Watershed development, micro-irrigation, crop diversification towards pulses and millets, and crop insurance cut the cost of the next El Niño year.
UPSC Relevance
GS Paper 1. Salient features of world physical geography; important geophysical phenomena (monsoon, El Niño, MJO); changes in critical geographical features. GS Paper 3. Cropping patterns and irrigation; disaster management (drought).
A question worth preparing. “A near-normal all-India monsoon figure can conceal severe regional distress.” Discuss with reference to the 2026 south-west monsoon. (250 words)
The Mains framing. Give the numbers: 87 per cent of LPA, a deficient season, the lowest since 2015, with the east and north-east at a record low and the south 24 per cent short while the north-west and centre were near normal. Explain El Niño, low-pressure systems and the MJO. Discuss consequences for crops, water, power and prices. Conclude with region-specific contingency plans, extended-range forecasts and long-term drought-proofing.
📌 Facts Corner, Knowledgepedia
Prelims, statement-ready facts:
- Monsoon 2026: 759.4 mm against LPA 868.6 mm, 87% of LPA (12.6% below normal).
- Lowest since 2015; east and north-east India driest since 1901 (about 1,017 mm, -25.6%).
- South peninsula -24.3% (fourth lowest since 1901); north-west -5.9%; central -2.6%.
- 17 of 36 subdivisions deficient; 77 low-pressure days against a normal of 57.
- LPA period: 1971 to 2020; seasonal LPA about 87 cm.
- IMD forecasts: 92% (13 April), 90% (29 May); October rain likely below 85% of LPA.
Prelims, the traps:
- Below 90% of LPA is “deficient”; 90 to 95% is “below normal”, not deficient.
- The MJO moves eastward along the equator with a 30 to 60 day cycle; it is not part of ENSO.
- Drought is declared by States; IMD classifies rainfall, it does not declare drought.
Mains, arguments and keywords:
- Regional heterogeneity; El Niño year; low-pressure systems; declining north-east rainfall; extended-range forecasts; drought-proofing.
Interview, be ready for:
- “If IMD got the season right, why did farmers still suffer?” Because monthly and local distribution, not the seasonal total, decides sowing and yields; forecasts must be local and timely.
Sources: The Hindu, The Indian Express, India Meteorological Department
Source: Monsoon 2026 Ends at 87% of Normal: Driest Season Since 2015, and the East and North-East Record Their Lowest Since 1901 — Ujiyari.com | Free UPSC & State PCS Current Affairs
