Cyclone Arnab: NCMC Review, Red Message and the IMD Scale

🗞️ Why in News Cyclone Arnab formed when a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified into a cyclonic storm at 0530 IST on 26 October 2026, and Cabinet Secretary Dr. T. V. Somanathan chaired the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) the same day to review preparedness. IMD’s bulletin of 26 October (storm position at 1430 IST), a Cyclone Warning marked “Red Message” for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, says the storm is likely to cross the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, as a very severe cyclonic storm by the forenoon of 28 October.

Earlier editions followed this system as a low-pressure area likely to become Cyclone Arnab (24 October roundup) and as a depression (25 October roundup). What is new: the storm has formed and been named, the Centre’s apex crisis committee has met, and IMD now gives a landfall window. Everything below about 27 October onwards is a forecast, as IMD gave it on 26 October; each new bulletin can revise it.

From Deep Depression to Cyclone Arnab

IMD reported on the evening of 25 October that the depression over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal had intensified into a deep depression (The Hindu, 26 October). Early on 26 October it moved nearly westwards and became the cyclonic storm “Arnab”, the stage at which a storm is named. The name is Bangladesh’s entry in column 3 of the north Indian Ocean list; IMD gives its pronunciation as “Ornab”.

At sea the storm is already strong: IMD reported gale winds of 65 to 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph over the east-central and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.

The Forecast: Intensity, Track and Landfall

IMD’s National Bulletin No. 11, issued at 1700 IST on 26 October, carries a Cyclone Warning for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, marked “Red Message”. In IMD’s warning ladder, a Pre-Cyclone Watch is issued 72 hours before adverse weather begins, a Cyclone Alert generally 48 hours before, and a Cyclone Warning generally 24 hours before.

• Intensity: the storm is very likely to “intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm over westcentral Bay of Bengal by evening of today, the 26th October and into a very severe cyclonic storm over the same region on 27th October.”
• Track: west-north-westwards till 27 October, then north-westwards towards the Andhra Pradesh coast. IMD’s forecast table puts the centre near 15.8° N, 85.7° E at 0530 IST on 27 October, and near 16.9° N, 82.1° E at 1130 IST on 28 October, close to Kakinada and Yanam.
• Landfall: the storm is very likely to “cross Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam close to Yanam as a very severe cyclonic storm with the maximum sustained wind speed of 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph by forenoon of 28th October, 2026.”
• After landfall: “Thereafter it is likely to affect districts in Telangana, Southern Odisha, South & Central Chhattisgarh apart from Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar” (PIB). The forecast track runs north over land as the system weakens, reaching about 23.5° N, 81.5° E by 1130 IST on 30 October.

The NCMC Review: Who Met and What It Directed

Cabinet Secretary Dr. T. V. Somanathan chaired the NCMC on 26 October “to review preparedness for the impending cyclone in the Bay of Bengal” (PIB). The Director General of IMD briefed the committee on the storm and its forecast track.

Who attended: the Union Home Secretary; the Chief Secretaries or senior officials of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and the Union Territory of Puducherry; Secretaries of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, the Department of Fisheries, the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways and the Ministry of Power; NDMA; the Chief of Integrated Defence Staff to the Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee (CISC); and the Directors General of NDRF, IMD and the Indian Coast Guard.

What the States reported: “adequate shelters and evacuation arrangements have been made, and necessary NDRF and SDRF teams have been kept on standby”, and District Control Rooms have been activated.

What the Centre reported: Standard Operating Procedures are in place; NDRF has deployed teams, with more on standby; rescue and relief teams of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Indian Coast Guard, with their ships and aircraft, have been kept ready; and the Coast Guard has shepherded multiple ships and boats to jetties and shore. The Union Home Secretary said the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), NDMA and IMD are continuously monitoring the situation.

What the Cabinet Secretary directed: “the objective should be to ensure zero loss of life and minimise damage to property and infrastructure. In the event of any damage, essential services should be restored in the shortest possible time.” Since high rainfall was also expected in Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, he directed that they “should be suitably alerted by MHA/IMD”.

What the coastal States have done

• Andhra Pradesh: the managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority told The Hindu (26 October) that the State has deployed SDRF and NDRF forces and that people in the likely impact zones will be evacuated to shelters on or before 27 October. The State has also requisitioned more NDRF battalions; The Hindu reported that the cyclone could have a greater impact than last year’s severe cyclonic storm Montha.
• Odisha: on 25 October the State government instructed eight Ministers, including two Deputy Chief Ministers, to station themselves in eight districts to supervise disaster management and post-cyclone restoration; 24 Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force (ODRAF) teams and six NDRF teams were deployed in five districts (The Hindu).

The Law Behind the Response: NCMC, NDMA and NDRF

• The 2005 Act (Act 53 of 2005, dated 23 December 2005) set up the NDMA under section 3, with “the Prime Minister of India, who shall be the Chairperson of the National Authority, ex officio”. Section 44 provides for an NDRF “for the purpose of specialist response to a threatening disaster situation or disaster”.
• Section 8A, inserted by the Disaster Management (Amendment) Act, 2025 (assent on 29 March 2025), reads: “The National Crisis Management Committee constituted by the Government of India prior to the commencement of the Disaster Management (Amendment) Act, 2025, shall be the National Crisis Management Committee for the purposes of this Act and act as the nodal body to deal with the major disasters which have serious or national ramifications.” Its sub-section (2) says the committee “shall consist of the Cabinet Secretary as Chairperson and such other members as may be notified by the Central Government.”
• What that means: the NCMC is not a new body. It existed before 2025 as a committee of the Government of India; the amendment brings that same committee into the Act as the nodal body for major disasters with serious or national ramifications.

Map Work: Cyclone Arnab’s track

Map 1: Cyclone Arnab’s observed and forecast track

Places to Mark

Map Facts for Prelims

• South to north along the landfall stretch: Bapatla (15.9° N), Machilipatnam (16.2° N), Yanam (16.7° N), Kakinada (17.0° N), Visakhapatnam (17.7° N).
• Yanam is in a Union Territory: IMD writes “Yanam (Puducherry UT)”, so warnings name the “Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts”, and Puducherry sat in the NCMC with four States.
• Direction of travel: west-north-west at 13 kmph on 26 October; IMD forecasts a turn to the north-west on 27 October, towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, and a northward track inland after landfall.
• Reach beyond the landfall coast: squally weather is forecast along the north Tamil Nadu and West Bengal coasts, and extremely heavy rain at isolated places as far inland as East Uttar Pradesh.

Mains Lens: A Coastal Storm With an Inland Reach

• From warning to action in a day. The storm was named at 0530 IST and the NCMC met the same day, with IMD’s landfall window about two days away. A forecast is worth what it lets the administration do before the wind arrives: shelters, evacuation, boats ashore, teams in place.
• Three hazards, three geographies. Wind is fiercest at sea and on the coast around landfall and then eases; the surge threatens low-lying ground near Kakinada and Yanam; rain reaches farthest, into Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Odisha and East Uttar Pradesh. Preparedness that stops at the coastline misses the third.
• Federal coordination. One committee brought together MHA, NDMA, NDRF, IMD, the armed forces and the Coast Guard, four States and the Union Territory of Puducherry (for Yanam), and the ministries for petroleum, fisheries, ports and power, whose assets and livelihoods sit on the coast.
• Livelihoods at sea. Keeping fishermen ashore from 26 to 29 October protects lives but costs four days of income, a cost that falls on coastal households.
• The stated tests. The Cabinet Secretary set two: zero loss of life, and restoring essential services in the shortest possible time if there is damage.

What to watch: IMD forecasts Arnab to become a severe cyclonic storm by the evening of 26 October and a very severe cyclonic storm on 27 October, before the forecast landfall. Later IMD bulletins may revise the track, timing and strength, and Andhra Pradesh plans to finish moving people to shelters by 27 October.

UPSC Relevance

GS Paper 1: Important geophysical phenomena such as cyclones; geographical features and their location.

GS Paper 3: Disaster and disaster management.

Prelims: IMD’s cyclone scale; naming of north Indian Ocean cyclones (WMO/ESCAP Panel, 13 members, the April 2020 list); the NCMC (section 8A), NDMA (section 3) and NDRF (section 44) under the Disaster Management Act, 2005; storm surge and storm tide; the Andhra Pradesh coast from Bapatla to Visakhapatnam, and Yanam.

Mains: “A cyclone’s damage is not confined to the coast where it makes landfall. With reference to Cyclone Arnab, explain the hazards a severe cyclone brings on land and at sea, and examine the role of the National Crisis Management Committee in India’s response.” (GS3, 250 words)

📌 Facts Corner, Knowledgepedia

Prelims, statement-ready facts:

• Cyclone Arnab: a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal intensified into a cyclonic storm at 0530 IST on 26 October 2026 (IMD, PIB)
• “Arnab” (pronounced “Ornab”): Bangladesh’s entry in column 3 of the north Indian Ocean list adopted in April 2020
• IMD forecast (26 October): likely landfall between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to Yanam, as a very severe cyclonic storm by forenoon of 28 October
• Forecast landfall wind: maximum sustained 115-125 kmph gusting to 140 kmph; storm surge 1.0 to 1.5 m above the astronomical tide
• NCMC: section 8A of the Disaster Management Act, 2005, inserted by the 2025 Amendment Act (assent 29 March 2025); the Cabinet Secretary chairs it
• NDMA: section 3 of the Disaster Management Act, 2005; the Prime Minister is its Chairperson ex officio
• NDRF: section 44 of the Act, “for the purpose of specialist response to a threatening disaster situation or disaster”
• RSMC New Delhi names a storm at 34 knots or more; naming in the north Indian Ocean began in September 2004
• The 2020 list: 13 names from each of 13 WMO/ESCAP Panel members, used column-wise; a name is never repeated; eight letters at most
• IMD warning ladder: Pre-Cyclone Watch 72 hours before adverse weather, Cyclone Alert generally 48 hours, Cyclone Warning generally 24 hours
• IMD rain terms in the bulletin: heavy to very heavy 7 to 20 cm; extremely heavy 21 cm or more

Prelims, the traps:

• On 26 October Arnab was a cyclonic storm; “severe” (26 October evening), “very severe” (27 October) and the landfall were IMD forecasts
• Yanam belongs to the Union Territory of Puducherry, not Andhra Pradesh: hence IMD’s “Andhra Pradesh & Yanam coasts”
• The NCMC predates 2025: section 8A adopts the committee “constituted by the Government of India prior to the commencement” of the amendment
• NDMA is chaired by the Prime Minister; the NCMC by the Cabinet Secretary
• A depression or deep depression is not named; naming starts at 34 knots, the cyclonic storm stage
• Storm surge is the rise above the astronomical tide; storm tide is the actual water level, the tide plus the surge

Mains, arguments and keywords:

• A cyclone’s hazards travel inland: IMD forecasts extremely heavy rain at isolated places over East Uttar Pradesh on 29 October, so the NCMC asked for Eastern UP and Bihar to be alerted
• Keywords: zero loss of life, early warning, storm surge, inland flooding, evacuation, NDRF and SDRF, restoration of essential services, cooperative federalism

Interview, be ready for:

• “Why does a civil servant, not a Minister, chair the NCMC?” Section 8A names the Cabinet Secretary as Chairperson; the committee coordinates ministries, the armed forces and States.

Sources: Press Information Bureau (Cabinet Secretariat), “Cabinet Secretary chairs a meeting of National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) to review preparedness for the impending cyclone in Bay of Bengal”, 26 October 2026 (Release ID 2328434). India Meteorological Department, National Bulletin No. 11 on Cyclonic Storm “Arnab” (storm position at 1430 IST, issued 1700 IST, 26 October 2026), and IMD press release of 1400 IST, 26 October 2026. IMD Cyclone Warning Division, “Terminology”; IMD, tropical cyclone names for the north Indian Ocean (list adopted in April 2020). The Disaster Management Act, 2005, and the Disaster Management (Amendment) Act, 2025, enacted in March 2025 (Gazette of India Extraordinary, 29 March 2025). The Hindu, “A.P., Odisha on alert as deep depression forms”, 26 October 2026 (print). Town coordinates: Wikipedia.

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