The Lift Line
“The risk for America is that restricting settlement changes where work gets done, without creating equivalent domestic jobs.” (Arya Roy Bardhan, The Indian Express)
Why This Editorial Matters for Your Exam
This is a signed column in The Indian Express by Arya Roy Bardhan of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), published on 9 October 2026. It gives his view, not the paper’s. He asks whether a new US restriction on the green-card path for skilled workers will help American workers, or simply move work to countries such as India.
For the news itself, see our report on the US suspension of the green-card process for IT firms.
GS Paper 2: India-US relations; effect of the policies of developed countries on India’s interests; the Indian diaspora. GS Paper 3: Indian economy and employment; services and global capability centres. Prelims: PERM, green card, H-1B, remittance sources.
In the news: on 8 October 2026, US officials announced at a White House event that they would neither accept new nor process pending permanent labour certification (PERM) applications from eight employers: Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCLTech and Capgemini.
Background and Context
What was announced
| Point | Detail |
|---|---|
| Where | A White House event |
| What | No new PERM applications accepted, and pending ones not processed, for the eight employers |
| Who | Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCLTech and Capgemini |
| What stays | According to the column, “Existing H-1B status, approved certifications and approved I-140 immigrant petitions remain unaffected.” |
| Stated reasons | US officials cited alleged fraud and an effort to push companies to hire more Americans, as reported by Reuters. These are allegations; Microsoft said the “vast majority” of its US employees were Americans. |
The terms you need
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Green card | US permanent residency |
| PERM | Permanent labour certification; in the author’s words, “a step towards an employment-based green card” |
| I-140 | An immigrant petition; approved I-140 petitions are not affected, according to the column |
| H-1B | A US visa for skilled foreign workers; the green-card suspension is a separate measure, and H-1B status is not suspended by it |
The author’s figures
The column builds its case on data that the author cites. They are his figures, given here as he states them.
| What the author says | His figure |
|---|---|
| Cognizant’s PERM certifications | 7,079 in 2015, then America’s largest PERM employer; zero between October 2025 and June 2026 |
| Combined PERM share of the eight firms | 9.2% (FY2020), 3.7% (FY2025), 1.8% (FY2026, to June) |
| New H-1B approvals for TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL and Cognizant | 15,919 (FY2015) to 2,486 (FY2025), a fall of 84% |
| Indians’ share of all PERM certifications | 51-58% in each full year from 2015 to 2023 |
| Employment in global capability centres (GCCs) in India | 1.9 million (FY2024) to 2.36 million (FY2026) |
| Microsoft in India | More than 22,000 employees; an investment commitment of $17.5 billion over 2026-29 |
Remittances: the official figure
The one figure in the column that comes straight from an official source is on remittances. An RBI Bulletin article on India’s remittances reports:
| Point | RBI figure |
|---|---|
| Source | RBI Bulletin article on India’s remittances, dated 19 March 2025 |
| India’s total remittances | US$ 55.6 billion (2010-11) to US$ 118.7 billion (2023-24) |
| Share of the US in India’s inward remittances (banks) | 22.9% (2016-17), 23.4% (2020-21), 27.7% (2023-24) |
| Largest source | The US share “remained largest” |
| Advanced economies | “the US, the UK, Singapore, Canada and Australia which together accounted for more than half of the remittances in 2023-24” |
The author’s “about $33 billion” from the US is his own arithmetic: 27.7 per cent of US$ 118.7 billion.
The Analysis
1. Who is actually hit. The author’s first point is that the eight firms are not equally exposed. On his figures, the Indian IT firms had largely stopped filing for PERM, while Microsoft had become the largest PERM employer. So “The immediate green-card blow ... falls chiefly on Microsoft and Adobe employees”, many of them Indian, in his reading. For the outsourcing firms, “the larger concern is whether PERM restrictions foreshadow wider H-1B scrutiny”.
2. Indian IT had already moved on. The author argues that the retreat of Indian IT firms from visa-based work began well before this step: their new H-1B approvals fell sharply on his data, and “Indian firms increasingly hired locally in America and delivered work offshore.”
3. The human cost. The burden falls on people, not companies. The author notes that Indians have received a large share of PERM certifications, and that a large number of approved Indian petitions in the EB-2 category are already waiting for visas. “Those with approved petitions are unaffected by this suspension. The additional barrier falls on workers still seeking certification.”
4. Restriction does not equal American jobs. The author accepts that “The US labour-market anxiety is understandable”, citing higher unemployment in computer and mathematics occupations. But, he writes, “restricting foreign workers does not ensure that their jobs go to Americans. Firms can move the work abroad.” Companies with large Indian operations already have somewhere to move it. If permanent settlement becomes harder, “some workers may prefer employers or countries offering greater security”, and firms may relocate teams to keep them.
5. India’s opportunity, and its limit. “India is positioned to receive some of that work,” the author writes, pointing to the growth of global capability centres. But “more work in India does not automatically translate into more opportunities for fresh graduates.” He cites an ICRIER survey of IT firms in which 65 per cent reported cutting hiring after adopting AI and 55 per cent reduced entry-level employment. Relocated roles may suit experienced returnees better than new graduates: “Offshore expansion alone cannot resolve this mismatch.”
6. The slow costs: remittances and the diaspora. The US is India’s largest source of remittances (RBI). The author warns that “Fewer Indians settling there could slow future remittance growth and weaken the diaspora networks that help bring business to India.” These effects, he adds, “would unfold gradually”.
7. What India should do. His prescription is to focus on “capturing higher-value work through effective GCC policy, predictable tax and transfer-pricing rules, and skills that help experienced workers use AI.” “Preserving mobility still matters. But the central economic task is to turn relocated work into broader opportunity.”
Data and Institutions Vault
Prelims-grade facts:
- Green card: US permanent residency. PERM: permanent labour certification, a step towards an employment-based green card.
- The 8 October 2026 US step: no new PERM applications accepted, and pending ones not processed, for eight employers.
- The eight employers: Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCLTech and Capgemini.
- H-1B: a US work visa for skilled foreign workers; a separate measure, not suspended by this step.
- India’s remittances (RBI): US$ 55.6 billion (2010-11) to US$ 118.7 billion (2023-24).
- Largest source: the US, with 27.7% of inward remittances in 2023-24 (RBI survey; 23.4% in 2020-21).
- Advanced economies: the US, UK, Singapore, Canada and Australia together accounted for more than half of remittances in 2023-24.
⚠️ Watch the trap: GCC means two different things in this story. In the column it is a global capability centre, the in-house operation of a multinational in India. In the RBI’s remittance survey, “the GCC countries” are a group of source countries: the RBI notes a shift in the dominance of India’s remittances “from the GCC countries” to advanced economies such as the US. Also: the US step freezes the PERM route to a green card; it does not suspend H-1B visas, and approved I-140 petitions are not affected.
The Debate
| The author’s case | The other view |
|---|---|
| Restricting settlement moves work abroad without creating American jobs | The US may judge that protecting its own workers and acting on suspected misuse justifies the cost |
| Indian IT firms are less exposed than they appear; Microsoft and Adobe employees bear the immediate blow | Wider H-1B scrutiny, which the author flags as a risk, could hit Indian firms harder later |
| India can receive relocated work through GCCs | Relocated work may suit experienced staff, not India’s large pool of fresh graduates |
| Fewer settlers may mean slower remittance growth and weaker diaspora links | Remittances come from many countries, and the effect, by the author’s own account, would be gradual |
How to Think About This
Look at any change in a rich country’s immigration rules through three lenses.
- The worker: who loses a path to settlement, and who is protected (here, those with approved petitions)?
- The firm: does the company move people to the work, or move the work to the people? Firms with large Indian operations can do the second.
- The nation: India may gain jobs and investment through GCCs, but may lose some remittances and diaspora links over time, and must make sure relocated work reaches its graduates.
The general lesson for GS Paper 3: in a world where work can move, restrictions on people often move jobs rather than save them.
The Way Forward
- A clear GCC policy: stable rules that attract higher-value work to India, not only back-office tasks.
- Predictable tax and transfer-pricing rules: so that firms can plan relocation with confidence.
- Skills for the AI era: training that helps experienced workers use AI, and that prepares fresh graduates for the roles that remain.
- Diplomacy on mobility: the author notes that “Preserving mobility still matters”, so skilled mobility belongs on the India-US agenda.
- Watch the diaspora link: track remittance trends and support the business networks that connect Indians abroad with India.
Takeaway Box
- The news: on 8 October 2026 the US stopped accepting or processing PERM applications from eight employers, among them Microsoft, Adobe, Infosys and TCS.
- The author’s case: the freeze may move work to India rather than create jobs for Americans.
- The catch: relocated work may not reach India’s fresh graduates.
- The official number: the US supplied 27.7% of India’s inward remittances in 2023-24 (RBI survey).
- The line to remember: “Firms can move the work abroad.”
Sources: The Indian Express, column by Arya Roy Bardhan, “Could the green-card crackdown send American jobs to India?”; RBI Bulletin, article on India’s remittances (background data), 19 March 2025; Samper Law, update on the PERM suspension, 8 October 2026
Source: Green Card Crackdown: Could It Send American Jobs to India? — Ujiyari.com | Free UPSC & State PCS Editorial Analysis
