The Lift Line
“What is needed now is not another incremental measure, but a firm commitment to airshed-based, science-driven air-quality management.” (Gufran Beig, The Indian Express)
Why This Editorial Matters for Your Exam
This column in The Indian Express, published on 8 October 2026, is by Gufran Beig, chair professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) on the IISc campus and founder project director of SAFAR. As Delhi readies its winter plans, he argues that this year the bigger threat may be the weather: a super El Niño that traps pollution over North India. He then turns to two policy faults, a PM10-based metric under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) and a city-centric approach, and argues for an airshed approach.
The column joins three strands an aspirant needs together: sources of pollution, meteorology and governance. For context, read our report on CAQM’s revised GRAP for this winter, our editorial on Delhi’s winter plan and the limits of bans and our editorial on the super El Niño and ecological stress.
GS Paper 3: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation. GS Paper 1: Important geophysical phenomena (ENSO, western disturbances, temperature inversion). Essay: science and public policy.
New to this topic? Start here: the basics in plain words (revision card 1 of 7)
Background and Context
Why PM2.5 and PM10 are not the same problem
PM10 and PM2.5 are two measures of particulate matter in the air. Dust is a major contributor to PM10; the fine particulates of PM2.5, the author notes, are the most harmful to health. The distinction now has political weight: a minister in Delhi said, “PM₁₀ does not travel as far as PM₂.₅, so the construction contributes far less to pollution than vehicular emissions.” The author welcomes this as the scientific understanding he has long wished to hear from policymakers.
| PM10 | PM2.5 | |
|---|---|---|
| Big source in Delhi (per the author) | dust, including construction | transport (around 40 per cent in his SAFAR findings), stubble, waste and biofuel burning |
| How far it travels (per the minister) | not as far | farther |
| Where it sits in policy | NCAP measures progress by its fall | the more harmful pollutant, given less attention |
The National Clean Air Programme (NCAP)
The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) launched NCAP in January 2019 to improve air quality in non-attainment and million-plus cities; it now covers 130 cities (PIB, July 2026). Its revised target was reductions of up to 40 per cent, or achievement of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, for PM10 concentrations by 2025-26. The author’s complaint is about that yardstick: because funding and performance are judged by the fall in PM10, where dust is a major contributor, cities have put disproportionate effort into dust.
GRAP and the regional commission
Delhi’s winter response runs on the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), administered by the Commission for Air Quality Management in National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas (CAQM). For context on this winter: at its 30th meeting, on 28 September 2026, the Commission approved a revised GRAP schedule with 25 actions in Stage I, 8 in Stage II, 10 in Stage III and 5 in Stage IV, 48 in all. Among the changes, actions on DG sets and the entry of BS-IV and older buses from the NCR and adjoining States moved from Stage II to Stage I. Delhi’s own Winter Action Plan, the author notes, includes narrow road-sweeping machines, doubled parking charges and work-from-home provisions under GRAP.
The Analysis
The author makes five moves.
1. The metric shaped the priorities. Nearly a decade ago, presenting SAFAR findings under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the author reported that transport accounted for around 40 per cent of Delhi’s PM2.5 emissions. The finding met resistance. Because NCAP judged progress by PM10, effort went to second- or third-tier contributors, especially dust. He finds it encouraging that source science is now entering policy talk, though the road ahead is long.
2. Weather as a pollution multiplier. The author expects a “Super El Niño”, which he calls an exceptionally strong event of the century, to shape Delhi’s winter. By his account, it has already left India’s monsoon with a 13 per cent rainfall deficit, the highest in a decade, while Delhi recorded a 17 per cent surplus. Though the dynamics of ENSO originate in the Pacific Ocean, the effect reaches Delhi: an El Niño creates no pollution of its own, but it can trap what is emitted in three ways:
| Mechanism (per the author) | What it does to Delhi’s air |
|---|---|
| Weaker winds over North India (a recent NIAS study by the author) | fine particles from stubble, vehicles, biofuel and open waste burning do not disperse; extreme episodes repeat |
| Western disturbances almost absent | no intermittent rain to wash pollutants out; a long dry spell lets pollution build |
| Milder winter, lower inversion layer | mild days and cool, still nights lower the surface inversion layer; less vertical mixing; pollutants pile up near the ground |
3. Stubble burning has moved, and may be undercounted. Parts of Punjab and Haryana had rainfall deficits of 23 to 40 per cent, but early rains allowed early paddy sowing, so harvesting could begin in the first week of October. Research and the author’s conversations with farmers near Amritsar suggest that burning has shifted from morning to evening, and MODIS-based satellite fire detection, on which authorities rely heavily, may miss a significant share of these fires. He warns against repeating last year’s blind spot, when undercounting risked undermining mitigation. How the deficit affected the rice crop, and so burning, is still unclear.
4. The danger window. The festive season, with firecrackers, falls in the first week of November this year, when winter conditions are set and stubble burning is expected to peak. Historically, 5 to 10 November has been Delhi’s most challenging pollution period in the last decade. With weak El Niño winds, the author expects the pattern to return with greater intensity, so curbing extra emission sources in that window could spare Delhi the worst.
5. From city to airshed. Climate change is amplifying the natural drivers of pollution across the Indo-Gangetic region: a double whammy of emissions and extreme weather. The author calls for action across the short, medium and long term, and above all a move from a city-centric to an airshed-based approach, as set out in NARFI (National Air Quality Resource Framework of India), a monograph developed by NIAS under the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser. Where the full airshed is too vast to manage, a satellite airshed could serve as an operational alternative.
Data and Institutions Vault
Prelims-grade facts:
- NCAP: launched by the MoEFCC in January 2019; 130 cities (PIB, July 2026).
- NCAP target: up to 40% reduction in PM10 (or meeting NAAQS) by 2025-26, a target period that has now ended.
- GRAP: run by CAQM in the NCR; the revised schedule has 4 stages and 48 actions (25, 8, 10, 5).
- SAFAR: System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research, under the MoES; the author is its founder project director.
- NARFI: National Air Quality Resource Framework of India, a monograph by NIAS under the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser.
- Airshed: a region sharing the same air, managed as one unit across city and State lines.
- Western disturbances: bring winter rain to Delhi that washes out pollutants (per the author, almost absent in a strong El Niño).
- Temperature inversion: a lower surface inversion layer restricts vertical mixing and traps pollutants near the ground.
- Author: Gufran Beig, chair professor, NIAS (IISc campus); founder project director, SAFAR.
⚠️ Watch the trap: NCAP’s revised target is framed in PM10, not PM2.5. And an El Niño does not emit pollution; it traps what is emitted, through weaker winds, fewer western disturbances and a lower inversion layer.
The Debate
The author’s case. Delhi’s winter crisis is emissions multiplied by weather. A yardstick built on PM10 sent effort to dust while transport and burning drove the more harmful PM2.5. A strong El Niño will make the trap worse this year, so plans must be science-based, regional and timed to the worst window.
The other side. City governments can act only on city levers: parking charges, road sweeping, work-from-home orders. An airshed spans several States with different farm, power and transport priorities, and a new framework could become one more layer without powers or funds. Dust is still a large part of PM10 and harms health, so cutting it is not wasted effort. Weather forecasts months ahead are also uncertain, and plans built on a predicted El Niño may overreach.
The balanced verdict. The two views meet on one point: the unit of action should match the unit of the problem. A regional commission already exists for the NCR and adjoining areas; what the author adds is a scientific basis for its boundaries (the airshed), a better yardstick (PM2.5 and sources) and a calendar (the early-November window).
How to Think About This
Use a simple equation: concentration = emissions x weather. Most policy works on the first term inside city limits. This column reminds you that the second term can swamp it, and that a metric decides where money goes. In an answer, name all three layers: sources (transport, stubble, dust, firecrackers), meteorology (wind, western disturbances, inversion) and governance (NCAP’s yardstick, GRAP, the airshed). An answer that covers only stubble burning misses two of them.
Diagram-in-Words
Weather as a pollution multiplier
Emissions meet a weather trap; the author’s fix is to manage the airshed, not the city.
Takeaway Box
- Core idea: this winter, a super El Niño may make weather a pollution multiplier for Delhi.
- Evidence: transport around 40 per cent of PM2.5 (author’s SAFAR findings); 5 to 10 November the worst window of the last decade.
- Mechanism: weaker winds, almost no western disturbances, a lower inversion layer.
- Critique: NCAP’s PM10 yardstick pulled effort towards dust.
- Way forward: an airshed-based approach (NARFI), a satellite airshed where needed, and curbs timed to early November.
Revision Cards
UjiyariWhy this winter may be worse: card 3 →UjiyariThe static base: card 4 →UjiyariTest yourself on card 5 →Show answer
Show answer
Show answer
UjiyariTraps, recall and data on card 6 →R1How many actions in the revised GRAP schedule?
R2Which travels farther, PM10 or PM2.5?
R3What may satellites miss in Punjab and Haryana?
R4What does the author offer where a full airshed is too vast?
UjiyariWrite the Mains answer on card 7 →UjiyariNow take today’s quiz →Sources: The Indian Express, column by Gufran Beig, 8 October 2026; PIB, CAQM approves revised GRAP schedule, 30th Commission meeting; PIB, National Clean Air Programme, April 2023.
Source: Delhi Air Pollution Beyond the City: El Niño, Airshed Plan — Ujiyari.com | Free UPSC & State PCS Editorial Analysis
