The Lift Line
“When the two supply shocks combine, it’s agriculture that bears the brunt.” (Harish Damodaran, The Indian Express, 22 October 2026)
Why This Editorial Matters for Your Exam
In the news: Harish Damodaran, national rural affairs and agriculture editor of The Indian Express, argues in a column of 22 October 2026 that war and weather are exposing Indian agriculture’s vulnerabilities “from two fronts”: the “fossilisation” of farming and the “fuelisation” of food.
This page sets out the column’s argument, separates its figures from the official record on fertiliser prices, subsidies, irrigation and ethanol, and draws the policy lessons. Our piece on the Kharif 2026 NBS rates covers the subsidy round in detail.
UPSC relevance:
- GS Paper 3: major crops and inputs; issues related to direct and indirect farm subsidies; food security; energy and biofuels; conservation of soil health.
- Prelims: urea MRP and bag size; the Nutrient Based Subsidy scheme (since 1 April 2010); DAP support in Kharif 2026; E20 and the National Policy on Biofuels, 2018; B-heavy molasses; gross irrigated area as a share of gross cropped area.
- Essay and Interview: food versus fuel; the hidden cost of cheap inputs.
The Crux in 60 Words
Modern Indian farming runs on hydrocarbons: urea and DAP, sulphur, naphtha-based pesticides and diesel. When wars push up energy prices, farm costs rise; when oil is dear, crops are pulled towards ethanol. A strong El Niño could test the limits of fuelisation, he warns, though he judges sharp farm output falls unlikely. His remedy: use less urea and DAP, more balanced fertilisers, solar pumps and drip.
Harish Damodaran argues in The Indian Express that war and weather are exposing Indian agriculture on two fronts: the ‘fossilisation’ of farming, its dependence on hydrocarbons for fertilisers, chemicals and machines, and the ‘fuelisation’ of food, the diversion of crops to biofuel when oil is dear.
- In his figures, urea and DAP supplied roughly 67.5 per cent of the 33.5 million tonnes of N, P and K that India consumed in 2025-26.
- He reports that the West Asia and Black Sea region conflicts pushed delivered LNG prices in Northeast Asia from around $11 to $30 per million British thermal units over the past year, and sulphur to $1,000-1,100 a tonne.
- With Brent crude at $100-plus a barrel, he argues, the incentive to divert food crops to biofuel grows; India already blends ethanol up to 20 per cent in petrol.
- A prospective ‘very strong’ El Niño could add a weather shock to the war shock, though in his view irrigation and more diversified farm incomes make sharp output declines unlikely.
Several of the column’s figures are its own and do not appear in official releases: 33.5 million tonnes of NPK, the 12.8 per cent farm contraction of 1979-80, and one-third absorption of urea’s nitrogen. The fixed urea MRP and the extra DAP support shield the farmer’s price; the shock lands first on the subsidy bill.
And the official irrigation ratio is 55.8 per cent for 2022-23, a provisional figure.
On the columnist’s terms: replace urea and DAP gradually with ammonium sulphate and complex fertilisers, add biostimulants, move irrigation to solar pumps and drip, and watch the diversion of grains to ethanol. Our analysis adds: track the subsidy bill as input prices rise, and keep ethanol feedstock rules tied to the crop outlook, as the 2026-27 tender’s exclusion of cane juice and B-heavy molasses shows.
Background and Context
From bullocks to hydrocarbons, in the columnist’s telling
- 1950-51: in Damodaran’s figures, India had “hardly 8,500 tractors” and used 69,800 tonnes of chemical fertiliser in terms of N, P and K; bullocks ploughed, threshed, hauled and turned the rahat (Persian wheel), and farmyard manure supplied most plant nutrients.
- Today: he puts the tractor population above 1.2 crore and fertiliser use at 33.5 million tonnes of N, P and K in 2025-26, roughly 67.5 per cent of it from urea and DAP. Tractor sales of about 11.6 lakh in 2025-26 match an industry estimate reported by Autocar Professional on 10 April 2026 (domestic wholesale dispatches of 11,60,231 units).
- Beyond fertiliser: the building blocks of most crop protection chemicals (benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylene and propylene) are derived from naphtha, he writes, and the solvents and emulsifiers used to make them sprayable are “also largely petroleum-based”.
The fertiliser regime: the official record
| Item | Official record | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Urea MRP | Rs 242 per 45 kg bag of neem-coated urea, excluding neem-coating charges and taxes; the MRP “remains” Rs 242 | PIB, Department of Fertilizers, 20 March and 28 July 2026 |
| Sulphur-coated urea | Rs 254 per 40 kg bag | PIB, 20 March 2026 |
| Urea bag size | cut from 50 kg to 45 kg, and in certain cases to 40 kg, “with the objective of curbing excessive consumption of urea” | PIB, 20 March 2026 |
| NBS | for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers since 1 April 2010, based on nutrient content and Point of Sale (PoS) sales | PIB, 5 January and 28 July 2026 |
| Kharif 2026 NBS rates | 1 April to 30 September 2026; about Rs 41,533.81 crore; 28 grades; fixed “In view of the recent trends in the international prices of fertilizers & inputs like Urea, DAP, MOP and Sulphur” | PIB, Union Cabinet, 8 April 2026 |
| DAP price | Rs 1,350 per 50 kg bag in Kharif 2026, with additional support of Rs 3,500 per tonne over and above the NBS subsidy | PIB, 28 July 2026 |
| Fertiliser requirement | 677.18 lakh tonnes (LMT) of products in 2025-26, against 649.43 LMT in 2024-25 | PIB, 21 July 2026 |
Fuelisation: ethanol so far
- E20 reached early. India achieved the 20 per cent ethanol blending (E20) target in 2025, five years ahead of the original 2030 deadline set under the National Policy on Biofuels, 2018 (PIB, 10 July 2026). Blending was 19.20 per cent in ethanol supply year (ESY) 2024-25 and 20 per cent in ESY 2025-26 (November to June 2026).
- The 2026-27 feedstock rule. The oil marketing companies’ ethanol procurement tender for ESY 2026-27 “completely excludes sugarcane juice, sugar syrup, and B-heavy molasses”, Business Today reported on 17 October 2026; ChiniMandi reported the same exclusion on 16 October, quoting the tender document: “the government has issued directions that sugar diversion for ethanol be reduced to zero for ESY 2026-27”. Damodaran calls it a ban: “the Modi government has already banned the use of sugarcane juice and B-heavy molasses for making ethanol”.
Irrigation: the buffer
The share of gross irrigated area in gross cropped area was 17.1 per cent in 1950-51, 29.0 per cent in 1979-80, 54.90 per cent in 2021-22 and 55.80 per cent in 2022-23 (provisional), according to Land Use Statistics at a Glance 2022-23 of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics. The column’s “about 56 per cent” is this 2022-23 figure.
The Analysis
The columnist’s argument
- Fossilisation. Tractors, combines, electric and diesel pumps, urea and DAP, and naphtha-based pesticides have replaced the bullock and manure economy. The risk “wouldn’t have been evident” when India began the Green Revolution in the mid-sixties, he writes.
- The price shock, in his figures. Liquefied natural gas, which he calls the primary feedstock for urea and other nitrogen fertilisers, rose from around $11 to $30 per million British thermal units delivered to Northeast Asia over the past year; Northwest European naphtha from $515-520 to $910-915 a tonne; and sulphur, “the once-throwaway product”, to $1,000-1,100 a tonne, after strikes on refineries and energy infrastructure in Russia and the Persian Gulf.
- Fuelisation. “The longer Brent crude prices stay at $100-plus per barrel, the more the incentive for diverting food crops towards biofuel production.” He calls this “reverse fossilisation”, in which agriculture “becomes more a source than a consumer of fuel”. He cites Indonesia, which he says has made 50 per cent palm oil-derived FAME mandatory in all diesel from July.
- The twin shock. The limits of fuelisation “could be tested by a prospective “very strong” El Niño”. His precedent is 1979-80, when, he writes, the farm sector contracted by 12.8 per cent and the oil import bill doubled after Iran’s Islamic Revolution.
- The buffer. Diversification into dairying, poultry, aquaculture and horticulture, and wider irrigation, mean that “The twin shocks from wars and El Niño are unlikely, then, to cause sharp farm output declines of the kind seen in the past.”
- The remedies. “There is scope firstly to reduce the consumption of urea and DAP, especially given their low nutrient use efficiency.” In his account only a third of urea’s nitrogen is absorbed by crops and three-fourths of DAP’s phosphorus is “locked up” in the soil. He would gradually replace urea and DAP with ammonium sulphate and complex fertilisers, add biostimulants and approaches that trigger plants’ own defence mechanisms, and says “Irrigation, too, should progressively move to solar-powered pumps and drip systems.”
- The warning. “As El Niño bites, the turn of grains may also not be far.”
What the record confirms and what stays the columnist’s
| The column’s claim | Status |
|---|---|
| About 56 per cent of gross cropped area irrigated; 29 per cent in 1979-80; 17.1 per cent in 1950-51 | Matches official data: 55.8 per cent in 2022-23 (provisional), 29.0 and 17.1 per cent |
| 11.6 lakh tractors sold in 2025-26 | Domestic wholesale dispatches, an estimate of 11,60,231 units reported by Autocar Professional; retail registrations tracked by FADA were 10,50,077 |
| Ethanol blended up to 20 per cent in petrol | Official: E20 achieved in 2025 |
| Cane juice and B-heavy molasses “banned” for ethanol | The oil companies’ 2026-27 tender excludes them and cites Government directions to cut sugar diversion for ethanol to zero (ChiniMandi, 16 October 2026); the directions themselves are not quoted |
| 33.5 million tonnes of N, P and K, 67.5 per cent from urea and DAP | The columnist’s figure. Official releases count product tonnes (677.18 LMT required in 2025-26), a different measure |
| Tractor population above 1.2 crore; 8,500 tractors and 69,800 tonnes in 1950-51 | The columnist’s figures |
| Farm sector contracted 12.8 per cent in 1979-80 | The columnist’s figure |
| One-third of urea’s nitrogen absorbed; three-fourths of DAP’s phosphorus locked up | The columnist’s figures |
| LNG, naphtha and sulphur prices; Indonesia’s 50 per cent FAME rule | The columnist’s figures |
| A “very strong” El Niño | A forecast he calls “prospective”, not an event |
The policy link
- Who absorbs the shock. Because urea’s MRP is fixed and the gap to delivered cost is paid as subsidy, a rise in input prices reaches the exchequer before it reaches the farmer. The Kharif 2026 NBS round was fixed with international prices of urea, DAP, MOP and sulphur in view, and DAP stayed at Rs 1,350 a bag only with Rs 3,500 a tonne of extra support.
- The Government’s own signal on overuse. Cutting the urea bag from 50 kg to 45 kg was meant to curb excessive consumption, the same goal as the columnist’s call to use less urea.
- Food against fuel. The 2026-27 tender exclusion shows the brake the columnist anticipates: when cane is short, its fuel use is curbed. His question is whether grains come next.
Way forward
- Balanced nutrition. Shift gradually from urea and DAP to ammonium sulphate and complex fertilisers with a more balanced nutrient composition, as the columnist proposes.
- Use efficiency. Biostimulants that expand root surface area, in his view, can raise nutrient uptake; approaches that trigger plants’ own defence mechanisms can cut chemical pesticide use.
- Energy for irrigation. Move pumps to solar power and fields to drip systems.
- Watch the subsidy bill. With urea’s price fixed and DAP held by extra support, rising input prices show up in the fertiliser subsidy; plan for it in the budget rather than in mid-season.
- A food-first biofuel rule. Tie ethanol feedstock to the crop outlook each supply year, as the 2026-27 tender does for cane juice and B-heavy molasses.
Data and Institutions Vault
Prelims-grade facts:
Urea:
- MRP Rs 242 per 45 kg bag of neem-coated urea, excluding neem-coating charges and taxes; still Rs 242 as of 28 July 2026
- Sulphur-coated urea: Rs 254 per 40 kg bag
- Bag size cut from 50 kg to 45 kg (some 40 kg) to curb excessive consumption
- Subsidy = the gap between delivered cost and market realisation, paid to manufacturers and importers
Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS):
- For P&K fertilisers since 1 April 2010; subsidy linked to nutrient content (N, P, K, S)
- Kharif 2026 (1 April to 30 September 2026): about Rs 41,533.81 crore; 28 grades
- DAP at Rs 1,350 per 50 kg bag in Kharif 2026, with Rs 3,500 per tonne of extra support
- MRP reasonableness guidelines of 18 January 2024: profit margins of 8% (importers), 10% (manufacturers), 12% (integrated)
Biofuels:
- E20 achieved in 2025, five years ahead of the 2030 deadline under the National Policy on Biofuels, 2018
- Blending: 19.20 per cent in ESY 2024-25; 20 per cent in ESY 2025-26 (November to June 2026)
- ESY 2026-27 tender excludes cane juice, sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses (press reports)
Irrigation (Land Use Statistics at a Glance 2022-23):
- Gross irrigated area: 55.8 per cent of gross cropped area in 2022-23 (provisional)
- 29.0 per cent in 1979-80; 17.1 per cent in 1950-51
⚠️ Watch the trap: NBS covers P&K fertilisers, not urea, whose MRP is fixed. The 33.5 million tonnes in the column are nutrient tonnes (N, P, K); PIB’s 677.18 LMT for 2025-26 are product tonnes. The 55.8 per cent irrigation ratio is the 2022-23 (provisional) figure, which the column rounds to about 56. The cane-juice exclusion appears in an oil-company tender, which cites Government directions; quote the tender, not a notification.
The Debate
| The columnist | The other side |
|---|---|
| Farming is “fossilised” and exposed to energy prices | The fixed urea MRP and extra DAP support shield the farmer’s price; the shock lands first on the subsidy bill, a fiscal problem before it is an output problem |
| Cut urea and DAP use because of their low nutrient use efficiency | Balanced use needs price signals that reward it; with urea’s price fixed and P&K priced by companies, in our reading the signal points towards urea |
| High oil prices raise the pull to divert food to fuel | The 2026-27 tender already excludes cane juice and B-heavy molasses: policy can apply the brakes when a crop is short |
| A twin shock on the 1979-80 pattern is possible | Irrigation covers 55.8 per cent of gross cropped area against 29.0 per cent in 1979-80, and the columnist himself calls sharp output falls unlikely |
Balanced verdict: the column’s frame is strong and examinable: farm inputs are energy products, and biofuel ties food to oil. Its anchor facts on irrigation and ethanol match the record. Many of its numbers (fertiliser tonnage, nutrient absorption, prices, 1979-80) are its own: use them as the columnist’s, and lean on the official subsidy and irrigation data in an answer.
How to Think About This
- Nutrient tonnes are not product tonnes. A 45 kg bag of urea is not 45 kg of nitrogen. Check which measure a fertiliser figure uses before comparing it.
- Date every statistic. “About 56 per cent irrigated” is the 2022-23 provisional figure; a later year may differ.
- Trace a rule to its document. The cane-juice exclusion sits in an oil company’s tender, which cites Government directions; ask which document an exam fact rests on.
- A forecast is not an event. The El Niño in the column is “prospective”; write it as a risk.
- Ask who pays. With a fixed MRP, a price shock moves from the farmer to the subsidy bill. Say which one a policy protects.
Diagram-in-Words
Indian agriculture’s polycrisis moment
Covers the columnist’s two fronts, the official fertiliser and irrigation record, and the remedies.
Indian agriculture depends on hydrocarbons for its fertilisers, crop protection chemicals and machines, while high oil prices raise the pull to divert food crops to biofuel. Examine the risks this creates for food security and suggest how fertiliser and biofuel policy should respond. (250 words)
Indian agriculture has moved from bullock power and farmyard manure to tractors, chemical fertilisers and petroleum-based crop protection chemicals. Output now depends on hydrocarbon inputs whose prices move with global energy markets, while high oil prices raise the pull to turn food crops into biofuel.
Urea is sold at a statutorily notified MRP of Rs 242 per 45 kg bag, unchanged in July 2026, and the Government reimburses manufacturers and importers the difference between delivered cost and market realisation as subsidy. Phosphatic and potassic fertilisers have been under the Nutrient Based Subsidy scheme since 1 April 2010: a fixed subsidy linked to nutrient content, with companies setting the MRP at reasonable levels.
When international prices of fertilisers and inputs such as urea, DAP, MOP and sulphur rise, as the Union Cabinet noted while fixing Kharif 2026 rates of about Rs 41,533.81 crore, the burden moves to the exchequer: DAP was held at Rs 1,350 per 50 kg bag only with additional support of Rs 3,500 per tonne. On the fuel side, India achieved 20 per cent ethanol blending in 2025, five years ahead of the 2030 deadline under the National Policy on Biofuels, 2018.
For the 2026-27 supply year the oil marketing companies’ ethanol tender reportedly excludes cane juice, sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses, a sign that food needs can limit the fuel use of crops. Agriculture is also better buffered than before: gross irrigated area rose from 29.0 per cent of gross cropped area in 1979-80 to 55.8 per cent in 2022-23 (provisional).
Resilience lies in balanced and efficient nutrient use, which the Government’s own cut in urea bag size to curb excessive consumption recognises, in solar pumps and drip irrigation, and in biofuel rules that put food security first whenever the monsoon or El Niño threatens supply.
Interview Angle
"Urea is sold at a fixed price of Rs 242 a bag while DAP is priced by companies under a fixed subsidy. If you were asked to cut urea overuse without hurting small farmers, where would you start?"
Takeaway Box
- Lift line: “When the two supply shocks combine, it’s agriculture that bears the brunt.”
- The argument: war exposes the “fossilisation” of farming (fertilisers, sulphur, naphtha-based chemicals, diesel), and dear oil drives the “fuelisation” of food.
- The official anchors: urea MRP Rs 242 per 45 kg bag; NBS for P&K since 1 April 2010; DAP Rs 1,350 per 50 kg bag in Kharif 2026; E20 achieved in 2025; 55.8 per cent irrigated (2022-23).
- The columnist’s figures: 33.5 million tonnes of NPK in 2025-26; 12.8 per cent farm contraction in 1979-80; one-third urea nitrogen absorbed.
- Mains keywords: input dependence, nutrient use efficiency, balanced fertilisation, fixed MRP, nutrient based subsidy, food versus fuel, feedstock diversion, El Niño risk.
- Ethics and Interview: cheap inputs today against soil health and fiscal room tomorrow.
- Probable question: “Examine how India’s fertiliser subsidy regime shapes nutrient use and exposure to global price shocks.”
- Watch next: the Rabi 2026-27 NBS rates, and whether grains are limited as ethanol feedstock if El Niño hits.
Sources:
- The Indian Express, Harish Damodaran, “Indian agriculture’s polycrisis moment”, 22 October 2026
- PIB, Department of Fertilizers, urea MRP and bag size, 20 March 2026
- PIB, urea subsidy and MRP, 27 July 2021
- PIB, Department of Fertilizers, 28 July 2026
- PIB, Backgrounder on the Nutrient-Based Subsidy scheme, 5 January 2026
- PIB, Cabinet approves NBS rates for Kharif 2026, 8 April 2026
- PIB, fertiliser requirement, 21 July 2026
- PIB, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 10 July 2026
- Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Land Use Statistics at a Glance 2022-23
- Business Today, 17 October 2026
- ChiniMandi, 16 October 2026
- Autocar Professional, 10 April 2026
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