Core Industries September 2026: ICI Grows 7.9%, Nine Sectors

🗞️ Why in News The Index of Core Industries (ICI) grew 7.9 per cent in September 2026 (provisional) over September 2025, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 21 October 2026. The same release revised August 2026 growth up from 4.8 per cent (provisional) to 5.9 per cent (final), and put cumulative growth for April-September 2026 at 5.1 per cent, against 2.5 per cent a year earlier.

Two things make this release worth an aspirant’s time. The headline number, 7.9 per cent, is higher than August’s revised 5.9 per cent. And the index behind it is new: the ICI now runs on base year 2022-23 with nine industries, not the eight that older notes and the index’s former name, “Index of Eight Core Industries”, still suggest.

At a Glance: September 2026

September 2026, Industry by Industry

All September 2026 and April-September 2026 figures are provisional.

What Grew and What Shrank

Six of the nine industries grew in September 2026 over September 2025. Iron ore led at 18.4 per cent, followed by electricity (11.4), coal (10.7), refinery products (10.3), cement (9.8) and steel (4.9). Three contracted: fertilizers (-11.7 per cent), natural gas (-4.6) and crude oil (-1.4).

The release names the engines of recent months: “Coal, Refinery Products, Steel and Iron Ore have been the major drivers of overall growth of ICI during recent months.” It gives no reason for September’s pick-up, and the table alone cannot supply one.

Two comparisons with a year earlier help. In September 2025 the overall index had grown 3.1 per cent, so this year’s 7.9 per cent is measured against a modest base. Steel is the opposite case: its 4.9 per cent comes after 14.3 per cent growth in September 2025.

The cumulative picture is less even than the monthly one. Over April-September 2026, iron ore grew 21.2 per cent, electricity 10.2 and cement 10.1, while coal (-1.0), crude oil (-3.7), natural gas (-4.4) and fertilizers (-7.6) were lower than a year earlier. Refinery products grew just 1.0 per cent over the six months, despite 10.3 per cent in September.

Read the weights before the growth rates. In a weighted index, a fast-growing small industry moves the total less than a moderately growing large one. Iron ore grew fastest in September but carries a weight of 4.905; electricity grew 11.4 per cent on a weight of 30.932. Electricity, refinery products and steel together carry 71.088 of the 100 points of weight.

How the Index Works: Nine Industries, One Lead Indicator

The OEA publishes the provisional index for a month on the 20th of the following month (or the next working day if the 20th is not one), and the final index a month later, alongside the next provisional figure. That is why this release carries two months: September provisional and August final. The OEA has placed the index for April 2023 onward on its web portal.

The ICI matters because of what it leads. The nine core industries carry 32.88 per cent of the weight in the IIP (base 2022-23), which MoSPI compiles and releases; in the old series, the ICI’s industries carried 40.27 per cent of the IIP (2011-12). Since the ICI comes out about ten days before the IIP for the same month, it is the first official read on how industry did. For background, our 23 September roundup carried August’s provisional ICI figure.

The New Series: Base 2022-23 and a Ninth Industry

The new series began in July 2026: the OEA released it, with base year 2022-23, on 20 July 2026, replacing the series with base year 2011-12, which was discontinued. The first month in the new series was June 2026 (provisional), with a back series from April 2023.

Why change the base? The FAQs on the new series say the revision “is in line with Base Year revision of key macroeconomic indicators, namely GDP, WPI, and IIP”, and that “Aligning the ICI with the new common base year will ensure comparability across datasets”. The work began in November 2025, when a committee under the chairmanship of the then Principal Economic Adviser, OEA, DPIIT, was set up on 7 November 2025 to revise the base year.

What changed:

• Iron ore added. In the words of the July release, “the number of core industries have increased from eight to nine in the new series”.
• Steel on gross production. Steel is now measured on gross, not net, production, to make it consistent with the IIP.
• Raw coal only. Coal middling and washed coal are excluded “in order to remove double counting”.
• Weights from the IIP. The ICI’s weights are derived from the weights of the corresponding items of the IIP (2022-23) series, distributed pro rata to 100.
• Linking factor. The linking factor for the overall index is 1.47, defined in the release as the geometric mean of the old series for 2022-23 divided by that of the new series.

Weights, Old Series and New

The biggest shift is electricity, now the heaviest industry instead of refinery products. The FAQs explain it: the weight rose “owing to a large rise in Gross Value Added of electricity sector from 2011-12 to 2022-23, and inclusion of renewable sources of energy (compared to only conventional sources of energy used in 2011-12 series) in calculation of electricity weights in IIP 2022-23 series.”

Mains Lens: What the Numbers Do and Do Not Say

• A lead indicator, not the whole of industry. The ICI’s nine industries carry 32.88 per cent of the IIP’s weight, so about two-thirds of the IIP lies outside them. A strong ICI month raises expectations for the IIP; it does not settle them.
• Provisional numbers move. August’s growth went from 4.8 to 5.9 per cent between the provisional and final estimates. September’s 7.9 per cent is provisional too; on the pattern of this release, its final figure should come with the October data.
• The energy transition is now in the weights. Electricity’s weight now includes renewable sources, which the 2011-12 weights did not, and electricity is the heaviest industry in the index.
• Persistent weak spots. Crude oil, natural gas and fertilizers contracted in September and over April-September 2026. The release records the fall without explaining it, but each touches a Mains theme: domestic energy output and farm inputs.
• Comparability. Moving the ICI to the same base as GDP, WPI and the IIP is meant to keep these datasets comparable.

What to Watch Next

• 28 October 2026: MoSPI’s advance release calendar schedules the next IIP release.
• Friday, 20 November 2026: the ICI for October 2026 is scheduled for release.

UPSC Relevance

GS Paper 3: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization of resources, growth, development and employment; Infrastructure: Energy.

Prelims: compiler of the ICI (OEA, DPIIT) against the IIP (MoSPI); the nine industries and their weights; base year 2022-23; the 32.88 per cent weight in the IIP; the release on the 20th of the following month.

Mains: “The Index of Core Industries is described as a lead indicator of industrial performance. Explain how it is compiled, and examine what its shift to base year 2022-23 changes in what it measures.” (GS3, 250 words)

📌 Facts Corner, Knowledgepedia

Prelims, statement-ready facts:

• ICI growth, September 2026: 7.9% year-on-year (provisional); August 2026, final: 5.9%
• ICI growth, April-September 2026: 5.1% (provisional), against 2.5% in April-September 2025
• Compiled by the Office of the Economic Adviser (OEA), DPIIT, Ministry of Commerce and Industry
• Provisional index released on the 20th of the following month; final index a month later
• New series: base year 2022-23, first released on 20 July 2026, replacing base 2011-12
• Nine core industries: coal, natural gas, crude oil, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement, electricity, iron ore
• Heaviest weights: electricity 30.932, refinery products 22.572, steel 17.584
• Combined weight of the nine core industries in the IIP (base 2022-23): 32.88%
• September 2026: fastest growth, iron ore 18.4%; sharpest fall, fertilizers -11.7%

Prelims, the traps:

• “Eight core industries” describes the old series; the 2022-23 series has nine, with iron ore added
• “About 40% of the IIP” is the old figure (40.27% in IIP 2011-12); in the 2022-23 series it is 32.88%
• The ICI is compiled by OEA, DPIIT (Ministry of Commerce and Industry); the IIP by MoSPI
• August 2026’s 4.8% was the provisional estimate; the final figure is 5.9%

Mains, arguments and keywords:

• Lead indicator: the ICI comes about ten days before the IIP, but its industries carry only 32.88% of the IIP’s weight
• Energy transition in the weights: electricity rose from 19.853 to 30.932, partly from including renewable sources
• Keywords: base-year revision, lead indicator, provisional and final estimates, weighted index, comparability across datasets

Interview, be ready for:

• “Why revise the base year of the ICI?” To align it with the base-year revision of GDP, WPI and the IIP, so that the datasets stay comparable.

Sources: PIB, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, “Provisional Index of Core Industries for the month of September 2026, and Final Index for the month of August 2026 with Base Year 2022-23”, 21 October 2026, and the Office of the Economic Adviser’s copy of the same release. PIB, “First Press Release of Index of Core Industries of New Series with Base Year 2022-23”, July 2026. Office of the Economic Adviser, DPIIT: FAQs on the ICI new series; Report of the Committee on the ICI base revision (June 2026); Advance Release Calendar of the ICI. MoSPI, Advance Release Calendar 2026-27.

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