Why in News
🗞️ Why in News After an early onset over Kerala on May 24, 2026, India’s southwest monsoon has stalled. As of June 17, the country was running a 38% all-India rainfall deficit (central India at 62% below normal), with the advance into the central and eastern plains held up by a cluster of unfavourable atmospheric conditions.
The stall matters because June rain seeds the kharif sowing season. A prolonged hiatus delays planting of paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton across the rain-fed heartland.
The Mechanics of the Indian Monsoon
The southwest monsoon is a large-scale sea-breeze driven by differential heating between the Indian landmass and the surrounding oceans. The normal onset over Kerala is June 1, with a model error of plus or minus four days; coverage of the whole country is normally complete by around July 8.
The Engines
| Driver | Role in the monsoon |
|---|---|
| Somali (Findlater) Jet | Cross-equatorial low-level jet that funnels moisture-laden winds from the southern Indian Ocean towards the west coast |
| Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) | An eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rainfall; its phase over the Indian Ocean can enhance or suppress monsoon convection |
| Wind convergence | Convergence of monsoon currents lifts moist air, triggering rainfall |
| Convection | Vertical uplift that forms rain-bearing clouds |
Why It Stalled: Five Suppressing Systems
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributed the hiatus to a confluence of factors:
- Unfavourable MJO phase: The MJO had shifted away from the Indian Ocean, reducing large-scale convective support over the subcontinent.
- Feeble Somali (Findlater) Jet: A weak cross-equatorial jet cut the supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere.
- Weak convection over the monsoon trough region.
- Poor wind convergence, limiting the uplift needed for rain.
- Suppressed atmospheric dynamics generally, delaying the trough’s northward push.
Despite the stall, the monsoon had already covered most of south, east and northeast India by June 15. Further advance into Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar was expected only around June 23.
| Indicator | Status (June 1 to 17, 2026) |
|---|---|
| All-India rainfall deficit | 38% below normal |
| Central India deficit | 62% below normal |
| Kerala onset | May 24, 2026 (eight days early, earliest since 2009; normal June 1) |
| Expected revival | Around June 23 |
Analysis: The Kharif Risk
June rainfall is the trigger for kharif sowing. A 38% deficit at this point raises three risks. First, delayed sowing compresses the crop calendar and can lower yields. Second, rain-fed regions of central India (the worst hit at 62%) have the least irrigation buffer. Third, a weak start can stress reservoir storage and rural demand. The saving grace is that the monsoon is a 100-day phenomenon: an early-season deficit can be recovered if July and August rains are robust, which is why the seasonal total matters more than any single fortnight.
Way Forward
- Contingency cropping: Promote short-duration, drought-tolerant varieties where sowing is delayed.
- Strengthen forecasting uptake: Translate IMD’s extended-range and Long Range Forecast into actionable, district-level agro-advisories.
- Water buffering: Prioritise watershed recharge and micro-irrigation in rain-fed central India to cushion early-season gaps.
UPSC Relevance
Prelims: Somali/Findlater Jet; Madden-Julian Oscillation; normal Kerala onset date; IMD Long Range Forecast.
Mains (GS1): “Explain the factors that govern the onset and progress of the southwest monsoon. How do oscillations such as the MJO modulate intra-seasonal rainfall variability?”
Facts Corner
📌 Facts Corner — Knowledgepedia
- Normal Kerala onset: June 1 (+/- 4 days); 2026 onset May 24 (earliest since 2009).
- Somali (Findlater) Jet: Cross-equatorial low-level jet carrying moisture to India’s west coast.
- MJO: Madden-Julian Oscillation, an eastward-moving pulse of cloud and rain that enhances or suppresses monsoon convection.
- 2026 deficit (June 1 to 17): 38% all-India; 62% in central India.
- Forecasting body: India Meteorological Department (IMD); seasonal outlook via the Long Range Forecast.
Sources: The Hindu, Down To Earth
Source: India's Monsoon Stalls: MJO, Somali Jet and a 38% June Deficit — Ujiyari.com | Free UPSC & State PCS Current Affairs
