Total Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a demographic indicator representing the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if she were to experience the current age-specific fertility rates at each age. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the 'replacement level' — the rate at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration.

• 1 Replacement-level TFR — 2.1 (accounts for child mortality)
• 2 India national TFR (NFHS-5, 2019-21) — 2.0 (below replacement for first time)
• 3 State variations — Kerala 1.5, Tamil Nadu 1.4, UP 2.4, Bihar 2.98
• 4 All southern states are below replacement level
• 5 Several northern states remain above replacement
• 6 Relevance to delimitation — states that reduced TFR fear losing parliamentary representation to high-TFR states
• 7 Demographic dividend window — India's working-age population peaks around 2035-2040
• 8 NFHS — National Family Health Survey (conducted by IIPS under MoHFW)

Tamil Nadu's TFR of 1.4 (well below replacement) means the state invested successfully in education and healthcare, yet population-based delimitation would reward higher-TFR states like Bihar (2.98) with more parliamentary seats.