Key Terms & Concepts — UPSC Mains
Predictive Policing
"The use of AI, machine learning, and data analytics to forecast where crimes are likely to occur or identify individuals likely to commit crimes, allowing pre-emptive police action"
Predictive policing is a law enforcement strategy that uses artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and statistical modelling to forecast crime patterns — predicting where crimes are likely to occur (place-based prediction) or identifying individuals at high risk of committing or being victimised by crime (person-based prediction). Outputs are used to allocate police resources, increase patrols in flagged areas, or flag individuals for proactive investigation. India's DRDO developed 'Prajna' — an AI-based satellite imagery and surveillance system used by MHA for monitoring sensitive areas — representing India's entry into AI-enabled security intelligence.
Relevant for GS3 (Internal Security — policing technology, surveillance) and GS2 (Governance — civil liberties, privacy, accountability). Predictive policing raises fundamental tension between crime prevention efficiency and civil liberties — particularly the right to privacy (Justice K.S. Puttaswamy verdict, 2017) and the presumption of innocence. UPSC essays and Ethics papers frequently examine technology-governance tensions.
- 1 Types — place-based (hotspot mapping) and person-based (risk scoring of individuals or groups)
- 2 Examples — PredPol (USA), Chicago's Strategic Subject List, UK's National Data Analytics Solution
- 3 India — DRDO's Prajna system (2026); AI-based satellite imagery analysis for MHA; Crime and Criminal Tracking Network (CCTNS)
- 4 Criticism — algorithmic bias perpetuates racial/caste profiling; surveillance creep; lacks transparency
- 5 Legal concerns — pre-crime intervention undermines presumption of innocence; no statutory framework in India
- 6 Puttaswamy judgment (2017) — right to privacy as fundamental right; predictive surveillance must meet proportionality test
- 7 PDPB/DPDP Act 2023 — does not specifically regulate law enforcement data use; creates oversight gap
- 8 Accountability gap — AI decisions in policing lack audit trails, grievance mechanisms, or judicial oversight
- 9 Global context — EU AI Act classifies real-time biometric surveillance in public spaces as 'unacceptable risk'
DRDO's Prajna system, deployed by MHA for surveillance in sensitive border areas and conflict zones, uses AI-based analysis of satellite imagery to detect unusual movement patterns — a form of predictive intelligence that raises questions about oversight, data retention, and the legal framework governing its use against civilians.
