🗞️ Why in News The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a Sydney-based think tank, has termed the current global period “The Great Fragmentation” — with ~35 countries in conflict, major conflicts at their highest level since World War II, wars now displacing and killing more people than natural disasters, and peace agreements collapsing to just 4% of conflicts in the 2010s (down from 23% in the 1970s).

The Three Geopolitical Phases (Past 50 Years)

Phase Period Character
Cold War ~1947-1991 Bipolar superpower rivalry
Globalisation & Liberalisation 1991-2008 Rapid trade integration, multilateralism
The Great Fragmentation 2008-present Rising violence, restricted trade, institutional decline
  • The current phase began with the 2008 global financial crisis — not a sudden collapse but a steady 15-year buildup of frictions
  • Geopolitical risks today exceed those during the Cold War (IEP)
  • Global “peacefulness” has declined in 13 of the last 17 years

Drivers of Fragmentation

1. Economic Weaponisation
  • Increasing use of tariffs, export bans, investment restrictions
  • New migration and capital controls
  • Globalisation replaced by restricted trade regimes
2. Institutional Collapse
  • Multilateral institutions abandoned to facilitate the new order
  • Being replaced by “minilateral” arrangements — smaller, issue-specific groupings among select countries
  • Peace agreements have fallen sharply: 23% of conflicts ended with peace agreements in the 1970s vs just 4% in the 2010s
3. Superpower Decline & Middle Power Rise
  • Both US and China have been losing their respective political influence since 2015
  • Rise of “middle-level powers” that do not align with superpowers
  • This fuels competition in the Global South — middle powers vie for influence alongside superpowers through aid, investment, and security partnerships
  • Result: a 175% increase in internationalised intrastate conflicts since 2010
    • Defined as: “where an external state provides troops to one side of an intrastate conflict”
4. Militarisation
  • Military expenditure has been rising continuously since 1991
  • After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022), many European countries dramatically increased military spending
  • “World War” is now a key Google search term

Impact on Development

Diversion of Resources
  • European economies have started trimming education and health budgets to fund military spending
  • Resources diverted from development and climate emergency activities
  • SDG progress already faltering, especially in conflict-affected countries
The Poor Pay Most
  • Wars and conflicts cost the most to poor and developing countries
  • Effects linger for decades — development clocks pushed back by generations
  • Wars now displace and kill more people than natural disasters — a reversal of the historical trend

Critical Evaluation for UPSC Mains

Why This Matters for India
  • India as a rising “middle power” — navigating between US and China without alignment
  • India’s multi-alignment strategy (Quad, BRICS, SCO, G20 presidency) is a product of this fragmented order
  • Defence spending: India is the world’s 4th largest military spender — budget pressure vs development needs
  • Trade disruptions: tariff wars, CBAM, supply chain reshoring directly impact India’s export competitiveness
  • Climate finance: diversion of development aid to military spending threatens climate commitments under Paris Agreement
The “Minilateral” World
  • Examples: AUKUS, I2U2 (India-Israel-UAE-US), Quad, BRICS+, Mineral Security Partnership
  • These replace broad multilateral consensus (WTO, UN) with smaller, interest-based coalitions
  • Risk: excludes smaller/poorer nations from decision-making
The Development-Security Trade-off
  • Military spending ↑ = social spending ↓ = SDG regression
  • Conflict countries account for 75% of extreme poverty globally (World Bank)
  • Post-conflict reconstruction costs are 10-20x more than prevention investment
  • The fragmentation makes climate cooperation harder — precisely when it’s most needed

UPSC Angle

  • Prelims: IEP (Institute for Economics and Peace), Global Peace Index, internationalised intrastate conflicts, minilateralism, SDGs
  • Mains GS-2: International relations — changing world order, multipolarity, middle powers, India’s multi-alignment, decline of multilateralism, proxy conflicts, Global South competition
  • Mains GS-3: Security — military expenditure trends, defence-development trade-off, impact on SDGs and climate action
  • Essay: “In a world armed to the teeth, can peace be anything more than a pause between wars?”

📌 Facts Corner — Knowledgepedia

The Great Fragmentation (IEP):

  • Institute for Economics and Peace: Sydney-based think tank
  • Current period = “The Great Fragmentation” (since 2008 financial crisis)
  • ~35 countries in active conflict
  • Major conflicts at highest level since World War II
  • Global peacefulness declined in 13 of 17 years
  • “Polycrisis” replaced by “geopolitical crisis”

Peace & Conflict Data:

  • Peace agreements: 23% of conflicts (1970s) → 4% (2010s)
  • Internationalised intrastate conflicts: up 175% since 2010
  • Wars now displace/kill more people than natural disasters (trend reversal)
  • Military expenditure rising continuously since 1991
  • Post-2022 (Ukraine invasion): European military spending surged

Superpower Dynamics:

  • US and China losing political influence since 2015
  • Rise of “middle-level powers” not aligned with superpowers
  • Competition in Global South: aid, investment, security partnerships
  • Globalisation → restricted trade regimes (tariffs, export bans, capital controls)
  • Multilateral institutions → minilateral arrangements

Development Impact:

  • European countries trimming education/health budgets for military
  • SDG progress faltering in conflict-affected countries
  • Wars cost most to poor/developing countries; effects linger decades
  • Conflict countries = 75% of global extreme poverty (World Bank)

Other Relevant Facts:

  • Global Peace Index: published annually by IEP since 2007
  • Cold War ended: 1991 (dissolution of Soviet Union)
  • 2008 Global Financial Crisis: triggered by US subprime mortgage collapse
  • Russia invaded Ukraine: February 24, 2022
  • India’s multi-alignment: Quad + BRICS + SCO + G20
  • AUKUS: Australia-UK-US security pact (2021)
  • I2U2: India-Israel-UAE-US (2022)

Sources: Down to Earth, Institute for Economics and Peace